- Copper - China’s copper demand will reach a climax by 2030
- Palladium - Price moves upward after US proposal
- Alumina - Export disruption in Guinea brings price within striking distance of record in 2018
Copper – China’s copper demand will reach a climax by 2030
China is the world’s third largest copper producer, following Chile and Peru. During the past week, Antaike (short for Beijing Antaike Information Co. Ltd.) provided interesting information about China’s copper demand until 2030. Yang Changhua, an analyst of Antaike - a Chinese state-owned company, and described as ‘The Leading China Metals Information Provider’ presented the figures at a conference of the company in Wuhan, capital of China’s Hubei province. Forecasts and figures provided by Yang inter alia included:- By 2030, China’s combined consumption of copper from the solar and wind industries plus electric vehicles will increase to 3.1 million tons - 26% of the country’s total demand, compared to 15% in 2023.
- China’s demand growth during the years 2021 - 2026 averaged 3.9%, but the demand growth will slow in the five years up to 2030, averaging 1.1%.
- Yang mentioned that ‘the copper intensity of renewables investment is falling as industries bid to reduce usage [of copper] or find alternative materials.’
- For the previous five years, there have been numerous unpleasant forecasts for copper, mainly based on the belief that copper mines will globally struggle to match a long demand boom. Yang referred to copper’s record high price earlier in 2026 ‘amid emerging signs of supply tightness.’
MINING.COM reported on Monday, 24 May 2026, as follows: ‘In the heavy volume on Monday copper for delivery in July hit a record intra-day level of $5.1990 a pound, or $11 460 a tonne.
After the equivalent of $68 billion worth of copper lots exchanged hands in 24 hours, the brown metal is up 35% so far in 2026 with most of the gains in the last few weeks.’
- Yang identified key risks to the climax by 2030, including the future strength of manufacturing exports of China, or the relocation of factories overseas.
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Palladium - Price moves upward after US proposal
Palladium is one of the most abundant metals in the platinum group metals (PGMs), also comprising platinum, rhodium, ruthenium, osmium, and iridium.
In 1803, the metal was isolated from crude platinum by the English chemist and physicist William Hyde Wollaston (1766 - 1828). He named the metal after the newly discovered asteroid Pallas.
Russia is the major global producer of palladium, followed by South Africa, while the Russian company MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC is the world’s biggest producer of the metal, accounting for approximately 40% of the global output. Norilsk Nickel sells most of its output to China, according to a trusted source.
Palladium is mostly used as catalytic converters for vehicles. It is also used in dental fillings, jewellery, electric components, and computer chips.
On Tuesday, 22 October 2026, officials of the Biden administration in the US proposed the possibility to sanction imports of palladium and titanium from Russia during a meeting of the deputy finance ministers of the Group of 7 (G-7) in Washington (DC). The G-7 consists of the USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Japan. The USA, which has already blocked Russian titanium, mooted the idea to encourage conversation about additional ways to weaken the Russian economy and to constrict Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine. Whether the US proposal will receive the support of all the G-7 members remains an open question, as indicated by MINING.COM: ‘One major challenge is that Europe is reliant on the metals [palladium and titanium] and has shown little appetite to target them in the past. G-7 members Germany, France, and Italy would also need the backing of the other 24 members of the European Union for such sanctions.’ Notwithstanding the challenges, the US proposal boosted the palladium price, jumping from $1 116 an ounce to $1 140. Noteworthy, earlier in October, the price was well below the $ 1,000 mark. Platinum Group Metal (PGM) producers on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) also benefitted from the US proposal. For instance, on Thursday, 24 October:- Anglo American Platinum’s share price increased 14%, trading at more than R750 per share on Thursday afternoon.
- Northam Platinum jumped 17%.
- The share price of Impala Platinum moved 12% upward to trade at R122 per share.
- Sibanye-Stillwater traded 11% higher.
Alumina export disruption in Guinea brings price within striking distance of record in 2018
Alumina is the common name for aluminium oxide.
Aluminium does not occur as a metal but must first be refined from bauxite into alumina.
The largest global alumina producer is China, followed by Australia.
Aluminium is used in numerous products including drink cans, window frames, and aeroplane parts.
NAI 500, a leading market intelligence platform which connects North American public companies with Chinese investors, reported on 23 October that the price of alumina ‘has rapidly approached historic highs.’ Analysts observed that alumina prices have increased by more than 20% during October, approaching the 2018 record of $707.75. The rising alumina price is fuelled by buyers racing to secure supplies, mainly because of concerns over export disruptions in the African country of Guinea, one of the world’s top exporters of bauxite. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) announced on 11 October that its bauxite exports have been temporarily suspended by Guinea’s customs department, causing alumina inventories at Chinese ports to plummet to their lowest since at least 2015. China relies heavily on Guinea for bauxite, ‘and smelters are being squeezed as alumina costs soar while prices for the finished product haven’t risen as quickly,’ according to analysts.You Might Also Like
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