It looks like the latest looting, protests, rioting, lockdowns, and setting everything on fire in New York, Chicago, and other Democratic states is not helping Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden. At the latest bookie odds, Republican candidate Donald Trump is once again leading the race for the 2025 Presidential elections.
When analyzing this, we have to keep in mind that in 2016, polls were leaning toward Hillary Clinton, and yet the results were different. Therefore, even when polls are favoring Joe Biden, voters can still put Trump back in the Presidential seat, despite the polling odds.
Moreover, according to another survey, a stunning 28 percent of African-Americans say they plan to vote for Trump, much higher than 2016 when Trump attracted 8 percent of the black vote while Hillary Clinton captured 89 percent. Joe Biden is down to 66 percent of the black vote, according to the poll.
Since Donald Trump is very proud of the soaring equity markets and he often tells us so on Twitter, we can assume that his second Presidential term will be met with another massive rally in the stock markets. Especially when the Fed is pumping money like never before.
Meanwhile, the USD is dropping like a stone, which is usually a bullish impetus for stocks—a perfect combo – another Trump presidency, extremely dovish Fed, and weak USD.
November looms and with it the anxiety regarding the elections, and the possibility of new lockdowns which could lead to online voting or through the mail, nobody knows for sure now.
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Peter Bukov | Market Analyst
Peter comes from a background in corporate finance which began in 2013 when he completed the Corporate Finance Program at the University of Economics in Bratislava. He’s been actively involved in the market sector since 2008 and got his hands-on experience in trading in 2011.
His experience in finance and trading continues not only as a market analyst at Axiory Intelligence but also through his studies to obtain a degree in Capital Markets. The study is in line with MIFID II regulations and is under the supervision of the European Regulator ESMA, which strongly emphasizes ethics and morale in investing and working with a client.
In addition, Peter was awarded the title of ASCI from the CISI Educational Institute of England where he is an associate member and the Bloomberg Aptitude Test results ranked him among the top 4% worldwide two years in a row.